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Shelter and Service Costs Challenge Federal Reserve's 2% Inflation Target

In aiming for the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, the focus primarily falls on services and shelter costs. Although other sectors are showing signs of stabilization, these two remain stubborn. Recent inflation trends showed the most resistance in these areas, differing from the typical cyclical nature seen in food, gas, or cars.

Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, suggests the possibility of needing a recession to regain control over escalating rents and medical services costs, implying that the 2% target might not be achievable without drastic measures. September's consumer price index (CPI) saw a drop to 3.7%, a figure that’s still higher than the Federal Reserve's ideal but a significant improvement from previous rates exceeding 9%.

The details of the CPI report reveal mixed developments. For instance, while costs for used cars and medical services saw reductions, shelter costs surged by 7.2%. Additionally, the rent of primary residences increased by 7.4%, and the homeowners' equivalent rent, a critical element in the CPI metric, rose 7.1%. The Federal Reserve may struggle to achieve its inflation target if these trends persist.

Blitz pointed out that, eventually, the broader macroeconomic trends like above-trend growth and low unemployment would take precedence. While he envisions a possible recession, it might be mild. In contrast, other economic experts, including those at Goldman Sachs, argue that a recession might not materialize.

Recent data from the Cleveland Fed highlighted a 5.1% inflation rate for "sticky-price" items such as rents and services in September, a decrease from May. Nevertheless, the challenge of reaching the desired inflation target remains. The upcoming decisions of the central bank are under scrutiny: Will they introduce another rate increase this year, or will they observe the evolving inflation scenario?

The housing market, a significant inflation contributor, has been particularly sensitive to interest rate hikes. Rising rates may potentially stifle apartment construction, leading to further rental price hikes and decreased affordability. This is a concern voiced by Christopher Bruen from the National Multifamily Housing Council, who also emphasized the broader economic implications of increased rates.

Despite the challenges, there are optimistic perspectives. For instance, the aftermath of the pandemic's impact is gradually fading from the economy. However, achieving the 2% inflation target demands economic moderation, which is complex given the current economic dynamism.

Fed policymakers hoped that renewing rental contracts at reduced rates might alleviate shelter inflation. Still, rising costs indicate otherwise. Stephen Juneau, U.S. economist at Bank of America, emphasizes the necessity for more data to determine whether this trend is temporary or has deeper underlying causes.


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