The 2026 FIFA World Cup pushed prediction market trading to record levels in June, with Kalshi topping $31 billion in notional volume and Polymarket's international platform setting an all-time monthly high of $10.8 billion.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup delivered on its billing as a landmark event for prediction markets, pushing monthly trading volumes to record levels across major platforms in June and drawing fresh scrutiny from regulators and institutional observers.
Kalshi recorded more than $31 billion in notional volume during June, a increase of more than 70% from May's total of $17.9 billion, according to user-collected data on Dune Analytics. The platform has sustained daily volume above $1 billion consistently since the tournament kicked off on June 11.
Polymarket's international event contract exchange set a new monthly record, with notional trading exceeding $10.8 billion in June. That figure reverses a downtrend the platform experienced in April and May. Polymarket's U.S. platform separately logged more than $3.5 billion in notional volume during the month, up from $1.77 billion in May.
Rothera, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood that only launched in June, also saw significant early activity. The platform recorded $2 billion in notional trading volume during its debut month and now accounts for 7% of U.S. prediction market volume, according to Bank of America. Robinhood began routing certain World Cup contracts on its brokerage platform to Rothera at launch.
All three platforms leaned heavily into the tournament to attract users. Polymarket launched a competition offering up to $2 million to whoever can build a perfect World Cup knockout bracket. Kalshi, meanwhile, promoted its ability to trade World Cup outcomes directly in the title of its mobile app on the Apple App Store.
Interest in Team USA's chances has been particularly active heading into the round of 16, where the U.S. is set to face Belgium on Monday. More than $64 million on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket has been traded on whether the U.S. will win the tournament outright, though odds stand at just 4.3% and 3%, respectively, on each platform.
Open interest — the total number of active, unsettled contracts — has also climbed. Kalshi's open interest is now above $1 billion, while Polymarket's international platform sits just under $400 million, elevated but roughly in line with where it has been for the past several months.
Industry observers say the surge in volume carries implications beyond sports betting. Asaf Meir, CEO of Solidus Labs — a market integrity firm with a partnership with Kalshi — framed the tournament as a critical stress test for the sector.
"The World Cup is such a huge pressure test to see whether indeed prediction markets are able to deliver their word on maintaining a level playing field for all investors for a long period of time in a sustained high-volume environment," Meir said.
Meir noted that both regulators and institutions are watching how platforms manage the spike, asking whether the infrastructure is "safe enough," "mature enough," and capable of handling sustained high-volume conditions.
How platforms navigate the World Cup surge could shape their positioning as they seek to expand into other high-volume contract categories, with regulators and institutional participants increasingly attentive to operational performance under pressure.
TechEchelon Staff bylines are produced collectively by the newsroom for short, breaking, and wire-style coverage. Longer-form reporting is published under the responsible reporter's name.
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