Anthropic holds 75% IPO odds on prediction platform Kalshi, making it the only major AI company still seen as a credible 2026 listing candidate after OpenAI ruled out a public debut and the broader U.S. IPO count fell 33% year-over-year.
Anthropic has emerged as the last major artificial intelligence company still considered a credible candidate for a public market debut in 2026, carrying 75% odds on prediction market platform Kalshi as of Monday morning — even as its revised IPO valuation range and slowing revenue growth have clouded the outlook.
The Kalshi market, which tracks whether companies will officially announce an IPO by the SEC declaring an S-1 effective, a pricing event, or an exchange assigning a ticker, lists 23 companies still open to trade. Of those, Anthropic is the only one with odds above 50%, after confidentially filing a prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission in early June.
Every other major name in the AI sector has effectively dropped out of the 2026 window. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said last month that going public did not make sense amid concerns over AI safety, and the company now sits at just a 3% probability on Kalshi. Traders carry only 50-50 odds that OpenAI makes an official IPO announcement by June 2027.
The broader IPO landscape has deteriorated alongside those specific retreats. The number of U.S. IPOs priced this year is down 33% compared with 2025, according to Renaissance Capital, even as total proceeds have risen sharply — driven largely by SpaceX's debut in June. Companies that once seemed certain to list have watched their odds collapse: financial technology firm Plaid, reportedly valued at $8 billion in the private market, drew 50% odds in January and now sits at 10%. Human resources and payroll platform Deel has fallen from 50-50 odds in February to just 3%. Cloud and AI platform Databricks, which also briefly topped 50% odds in January, is now at 1%.
Anthropic's own path to market has grown more complicated. The company last week revealed that its revenue totaled $16.8 billion in the third quarter, a figure that represented weaker quarter-over-quarter growth than in prior periods.
"More questions than answers emerged around the reasons for revenue growth deceleration in September and whether Anthropic can grow revenue at the rate the market is expecting given dynamics such as [large language model] pricing pressure," 22V Research analyst Dauvin Peterson wrote Sunday.
Peterson added that "the revised IPO valuation range starting at $1.5T vs the prior expectation of at least $2T was viewed as disappointing and added fuel to the fire for the AI-related equities that were already under pressure."
Separately, Anthropic announced over the weekend that it will commit 5 percent of its shares to a newly created Anthropic Benefit Fund, which the company said in a blog post will help it "pursue [its] mission." The pledge comes as the broader AI industry faces scrutiny over its potential impact on society and the labor market.
The dual developments — a lower valuation ceiling and a public-benefit commitment — reflect the competing pressures Anthropic faces as it navigates a listing. Public market investors will demand sustained top-line growth, while the company has consistently positioned itself around AI safety and responsibility, a posture that has shaped its fundraising strategy in the private markets.
Whether the company can satisfy both constituencies will be the central question as it moves toward a potential offering. With the Kalshi contract's resolution criteria tied to concrete regulatory milestones, the 75% probability implies traders expect that question to be answered before the year is out — though a narrowing window and a more cautious valuation story suggest the path is considerably less straightforward than it appeared at the start of 2026.
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