Howmet Aerospace Drops Nearly 8% After SpaceX Announces Plans to Build Its Own Turbine Castings

Howmet Aerospace shares fell nearly 8% on Monday after SpaceX announced plans to manufacture its own blades and vanes for industrial gas turbines used to power data centers, rattling investors in a company that holds a commanding share of that market. Two Wall Street analysts quickly pushed back, urging clients to treat the decline as a buying opportunity.

Citigroup reiterated a buy rating on the Pittsburgh-based company, opened what it called "an upside 30-day Catalyst Watch" on the stock, and repeated a $329 price target — a level that implies 34% upside from Monday's close. Bernstein, separately, reiterated an outperform rating with a $328 price objective.

"We see this as a unique and likely short-lived opportunity in shares," Citi analyst John Godyn wrote late Monday. He argued that the SpaceX news "reinforces the critical nature of HWM parts and illustrates the exceptional demand HWM faces in [industrial gas turbines] above/beyond its ~$2B revenue target."

Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned was similarly dismissive of the competitive threat. Howmet holds more than 50% of the market share for industrial gas turbine blade castings and has long-term agreements in place with every major turbine producer, he noted.

"We see little risk to Howmet from the SpaceX announcement; instead we see a positive message," Harned wrote. "The first of the new buildouts began to come online in [the second quarter]; at least six other capacity expansion efforts lie ahead."

Harned added that SpaceX's move to build its own capacity actually signals how intense upward pressure has become across the market — a reading that would favor Howmet's entrenched position rather than undermine it.

Citigroup further noted that SpaceX is likely to remain a customer somewhere in the industrial gas turbine supply chain, even if it proceeds with plans to internalize component manufacturing.

Monday's decline extended a rough stretch for the stock. Howmet is now down 13% over the past month. For the full year 2026, however, the company remains ahead 19.5%, outpacing the S&P 500's 12.3% gain over the same period. Over the past year, shares have climbed 41%, compared with 19% for the broader index.

The broader analyst community largely aligns with Citi and Bernstein's constructive view. According to LSEG data, 20 of 24 analysts covering Howmet rate it a buy or strong buy.

The episode highlights a tension that has emerged as vertically integrated technology and aerospace companies — SpaceX chief among them — increasingly attempt to internalize supply chains that have historically been dominated by specialized industrial manufacturers. For Howmet, the question investors will watch is whether long-term customer contracts and manufacturing scale prove durable barriers as new entrants test the market.

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