Oppenheimer and New Street Research Initiate SpaceX Coverage Ahead of Nasdaq IPO

Two Wall Street firms have become the first to issue coverage on SpaceX ahead of the company's public markets debut on the Nasdaq, scheduled for Friday, with both projecting double-digit gains from the $135 IPO price.

Oppenheimer initiated coverage with an outperform rating and a 12- to 18-month price target of $190, implying a 40% gain from the offering price. Analyst Timothy Horan cited the company's diversified portfolio as a key draw for investors.

"We see potential for SPCX to leverage terrestrial compute expertise as a bridge (and possible back-up plan) to enable key scale and cost advantages. We see it as the only vertically-integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent," Horan wrote in a Thursday note. "Its space infrastructure appears structurally advantaged."

Horan added that the stock should post gains at the outset, though he cautioned investors to expect volatility.

New Street Research separately set a 12-month price target of $165 — a 22% premium to the IPO price — but did not assign a formal rating. Analyst Pierre Ferragu grounded his target in long-term revenue projections, forecasting SpaceX will reach $195 billion in revenues by 2030, up sharply from $18.7 billion in 2025.

SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, but Ferragu expects the company to turn a net profit beginning in 2027. He estimates SpaceX will carry a valuation of $2.3 trillion that year, with upside potential if the addressable market for the company's space business expands beyond his base assumptions.

"If though the whole opportunity grows to our high-end estimate and SpaceX wins 50% share, it would imply a fair value of $330 per share," Ferragu wrote.

The two firms are the first to initiate coverage because most major Wall Street banks that served as underwriters on the deal are subject to quiet-period restrictions that bar them from publishing recommendations that could be seen as supporting the offering.

Perpetual futures tied to SpaceX shares are already trading and suggest the stock could open above $160 on its first day of trading, signaling early demand from market participants seeking exposure ahead of the official listing.

The IPO marks a closely watched milestone for the private space sector, reflecting broader investor appetite for companies that combine satellite infrastructure, launch services, and connectivity businesses under one roof. SpaceX's Starlink broadband network is expected to be a central driver of the revenue growth projections underpinning both firms' targets.

Whether the company can sustain momentum past its opening session — and whether underwriter-backed research due after the quiet period lifts or tempers the early enthusiasm — will be among the key indicators to watch in the weeks following Friday's debut.

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