Space Force Projects 3,000 Annual Launches by 2036, Calls for More Sites and AI Integration

The U.S. Space Force is preparing for a launch cadence that could reach more than 3,000 rockets per year by 2036, up from 175 combined launches across its two main bases last year, according to a service planning document released last month. To meet that demand, service leaders are pushing for additional launch sites, expanded infrastructure, more personnel, and deeper integration of artificial intelligence.

Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, which launched 36 rockets in its first year as a Space Force facility in 2021, sent 110 into orbit last year. Its California counterpart, Vandenberg Space Force Base, launched another 65 during the same period. This year, Space Force leaders intend to launch more than 200 rockets from those two facilities combined.

The scale of projected growth underscores the strain already bearing down on infrastructure that, in many cases, was built decades ago.

"In 2025, the Space Force saw a drastic increase in mission requirements across space access, global mission operations, and space control. This trend shows no signs of slowing," Gen. Chance Saltzman, the Space Force's top uniformed leader, told House lawmakers last week. "The Space Force we have today is not the Space Force we will need in the future."

Last month at the Space Symposium in Colorado, Saltzman unveiled "Objective Force 2040," a planning document that frames expanding launch capabilities as a national security imperative. The document warns that overreliance on Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg "creates enduring vulnerability to natural hazards, operational disruption, and degraded performance during periods of peak demand."

Todd Harrison, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a defense space expert, echoed that concern. "It would make sense to diversify, because right now we are incredibly dependent on just two locations," Harrison said. "One is at risk of hurricanes, and the other is at risk of wildfires and earthquakes."

Col. Ryan Hiserote, who leads Space Systems Command's System Delta 80 and runs the National Security Space Launch program, said the service is actively exploring additional sites, though a definitive solution for heavy-lift launches has not yet emerged. "In terms of heavy launch, it's really just the two bases we have now — with Vandenberg and the Cape — I don't have a good solution for that one yet," Hiserote said. "But we're certainly open to other locations, and the team has been exploring those."

Lawmakers have floated Wallops Island, Pacific Spaceport Complex in Alaska, and Spaceport America in New Mexico as potential alternatives for national security launches. The service has also looked at private sites, including SpaceX's Starbase facility in Texas, for certain mission types.

The Objective Force 2040 document notes that while the Space Force will "expand and certify state, commercial, and private launch sites," security and mission assurance requirements will limit those sites' suitability for the most sensitive national security missions.

Personnel constraints are emerging as an equally pressing challenge. Service leaders have called for doubling the Space Force's end-strength over the next decade, while simultaneously acknowledging that manpower growth alone will not be sufficient. AI tools are expected to fill much of the gap.

"Our manpower is going to change," said Air Force Col. Douglas Oltmer, commander of Cape Canaveral's 45th Weather Squadron. "It's going to have to change to be able to flex to that launch cadence, but we will not be able to do the job in the future the way we're doing it now. We're going to have to leverage technology, AI tools a lot more than we're doing now."

The Objective Force document calls for a service capable of operating "at machine speed, leveraging artificial intelligence and autonomous systems while maintaining the primacy of human judgment for critical decisions."

A congressionally mandated Space Force report on the long-term suitability of Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, as well as infrastructure maintenance costs, was due to lawmakers by March 31. As of last month, the report had not yet been delivered, and a service spokesperson did not respond to a request for an update — a gap that will likely draw further scrutiny as lawmakers weigh authorization and funding decisions in this year's National Defense Authorization Act cycle.