A Goldman Sachs report finds AI is already depressing hiring in call centers, software publishing, management consulting, and advertising, with entry-level workers bearing the heaviest burden across major developed economies.
Artificial intelligence is exerting measurable pressure on labor markets across major developed economies, with effects concentrated in a specific cluster of industries and hitting entry-level workers hardest, according to a Goldman Sachs report published Wednesday.
The investment bank found that industries with greater exposure to AI automation have generally seen slower job openings growth since the second half of 2022, with the relationship most pronounced in Germany, Australia, and the United States.
Employment in information and communication services — among the industries Goldman identified as most exposed to AI — has slowed across nearly all major developed economies since 2022, the report said. Outside the U.S., however, employment in those sectors remains near or above its long-run historical trend.
The picture sharpens when examining specific industries. Call centers, software publishing, management consulting, and advertising services have all seen employment fall sharply below historical trend across developed markets, according to the report.
Call centers stand out as the most affected sector. Employment in the industry is now 39% below trend in the U.S., 33% below trend in Canada, and 27% below trend in Germany, Goldman said, a pattern it attributed to the availability of AI tools capable of automating much of that work.
Entry-level workers face a disproportionate burden. Goldman analyzed employment growth across more than 800 occupations and found that AI-related headwinds were strongest among workers just entering the workforce.
Across the broader labor market, a 10% occupational exposure to AI was associated with only a 0.1 percentage point drag on annual headcount growth in France, Canada, and the U.S. For entry-level workers, that figure ranged from more than 0.6 percentage point in Australia to over 0.2 percentage point in the U.S. — a substantially larger effect.
Goldman also identified a smaller but additional negative effect among occupations considered at high risk of displacement from AI automation.
The report stopped short of characterizing the overall impact as sweeping. The bank concluded that AI-related hiring pressures are clearly visible in global employment data, but remain limited to a relatively narrow set of industries and workers for now.
The findings arrive as AI adoption spreads steadily across developed economies. Goldman aggregated data from 11 surveys measuring adoption rates across countries and found that major developed markets have reached adoption levels of roughly 15% to 20%.
France, the U.S., the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom are leading that adoption curve, while Italy, Japan, and New Zealand sit at the lower end among developed economies. Major emerging markets registered estimated adoption rates of between 10% and 15%, the report said.
With adoption still climbing and AI tooling becoming more capable, the industries and worker segments Goldman has already flagged as under pressure are likely to face continued scrutiny from policymakers, employers, and job seekers alike.
Jay Goldberg is a staff writer at TechEchelon covering technology, markets, and policy. He files the breaking news and deal coverage that move the publication's core desks.
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