Prediction market traders on Kalshi now place a 75% chance that U.S. gas prices will remain above $3.50 per gallon on Election Day, November 3, as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes raise doubts about Strait of Hormuz shipping flows.
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi now place a 75% probability that U.S. gas prices will remain above $3.50 per gallon on Election Day, November 3, with renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities casting fresh doubt on the return of normal shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The same traders assign 39% odds that prices will exceed $3.75 per gallon by that date. Both figures represent a sharp revision from earlier in the week, when the odds of prices staying above $3.50 stood at just 37%, and the odds of surpassing $3.75 sat at 22%.
The shift reflects the latest round of strikes exchanged between the United States and Iran, which has rattled energy markets and drawn renewed attention to the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for a significant share of global oil shipments.
On Thursday, the national average for gas prices reached $3.84 per gallon, up 5 cents from the day prior, according to AAA, whose national average data is used to resolve the Kalshi contracts.
U.S. oil prices climbed as high as $75 per barrel on Wednesday, rising from approximately $68 per barrel on Monday, before WTI crude eased back to below $72 per barrel on Thursday.
Even with prices elevated, Kalshi traders do not appear to be pricing in a return to this year's highs. They assign just a 43% chance that gas prices cross $4.60 at any point in 2026 — though that figure is up from roughly one-in-three odds before the latest escalation between Washington and Tehran.
The 2026 high for the national gas price average came on May 21, when it reached $4.56 per gallon. Before the conflict with Iran began, the national average was below $3 per gallon.
The contracts represent the collective expectations of speculators active on Kalshi's prediction market platform, and do not constitute a consensus forecast from any official energy or government body.
With midterm elections approaching and consumer energy costs already a sensitive political issue, the trajectory of gas prices between now and November 3 is likely to remain closely watched by both traders and policymakers. Whether further developments in the Middle East push prices back toward their May peak — or the market stabilizes — may hinge on the status of Strait of Hormuz traffic in the weeks ahead.
Sara Montes de Oca is the Editor in Chief of TechEchelon. Previously a correspondent and producer in Washington, D.C., covering business, finance, and politics.
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