Kalshi traders now put a 75% probability on more than 5,100 U.S. data centers being planned or operating before 2027, a sharp rise from 60% two weeks ago, even as community opposition to the projects grows.
Prediction market platform Kalshi is pricing in a 75% chance that the number of planned or operating artificial intelligence data centers in the United States will exceed 5,100 before the start of 2027 — up from 60% just two weeks ago — even as public opposition to data center construction intensifies across multiple states.
The contract's resolution will be verified by Data Center Map, a tracking site that plots both planned and live facilities. As of now, Data Center Map counts more than 4,700 operating and proposed data centers in the country.
Virginia leads all states with more than 670 planned and online facilities. Texas ranks second with 537, and California follows with more than 200, according to Data Center Map.
Tech companies have been accelerating their buildout particularly in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, reflecting both land availability and, in some cases, favorable regulatory environments. That expansion, however, has drawn organized resistance from local communities.
Critics argue the projects inflate utility costs for residents and draw heavily on local water supplies. Signs of that friction have appeared in rural areas: in Jewett, Texas, residents organized against a proposed Crusoe data center as recently as July 2026.
The Oracle Corporation — a notable player in the data center buildout — has encountered its own complications in New Mexico. The company sent its developer a "force majeure" notice tied to its New Mexico facility, a move designed to shield it from higher costs if the project fails to come online by 2028, as anticipated. Earlier this summer, New Mexico regulators also rejected applications for a gas pipeline project intended to power the Oracle site.
The tension between community pushback and continued construction reflects a broader debate over how much infrastructure the AI economy requires and who bears the local costs of hosting it. Opponents of moratoriums on data center construction have argued that halting development in one region does not eliminate demand — it redirects investment, and the jobs and tax revenue that accompany it, to other jurisdictions.
The jump in Kalshi's odds — 15 percentage points in a two-week window — suggests that traders are discounting community opposition as a meaningful brake on the overall pace of construction, at least through the end of this year.
With more than 400 additional facilities needed to cross the 5,100 threshold, and the resolution date set at the close of 2026, the coming months will test whether regulatory friction and local resistance can slow a buildout that prediction markets currently expect to proceed largely unimpeded.
Sara Montes de Oca is the Editor in Chief of TechEchelon. Previously a correspondent and producer in Washington, D.C., covering business, finance, and politics.
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