Kalshi Traders Put Odds of Major Crypto Bill Passing This Year Below 25%

Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi see less than a 25% chance that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will become law by the end of 2026, even as the White House escalates pressure on the Senate to advance the measure.

The legislation, which passed the House with bipartisan support in July 2025, is scheduled for a procedural Senate vote on September 15. Kalshi traders also place less than 50% odds on the bill being implemented by April 2027.

The Clarity Act would establish a formal regulatory framework for digital commodities, drawing defined boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission — which oversees securities — and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which handles derivatives including futures and prediction markets. Currently, both agencies have issued guidance on crypto assets but no explicit statutory lines exist between their jurisdictions.

President Donald Trump called on Congress last week to pass "a fair version of the Clarity Act," adding public pressure to a legislative push that has been building for more than a year. On August 19, Trump met with crypto industry leaders — including representatives from Coinbase, Ripple, Andreessen Horowitz, and Nasdaq — at the White House, with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig also in attendance.

Bitcoin has climbed more than 20% in the past week, a move traders have attributed in part to Trump's renewed push for the legislation. Even so, the Kalshi market signals that investor enthusiasm has not translated into confidence that the bill will clear the Senate in time.

CFTC Chairman Selig, speaking at the agency's first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting last Thursday, struck a combative tone regarding the bill's Senate prospects. "If Clarity continues to stall because of Democrat obstruction, the CFTC will utilize its existing authorities to begin establishing a regime for crypto asset markets. We owe it to the American people to do so," he said.

The statement signals that the CFTC may move unilaterally through existing rulemaking powers if Congress fails to act — a path that would carry less statutory weight than comprehensive legislation but could still reshape how the agency polices digital asset markets in the near term.

The Clarity Act's trajectory in the Senate will be closely watched in the weeks surrounding the September 15 procedural vote, with the outcome likely to determine whether the broader crypto regulatory framework takes shape through legislation or through piecemeal agency action.

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