Research firm New Constructs has valued Anthropic at $150 billion and labeled its planned Nasdaq listing the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026," citing a $42 billion net loss in 2025 and growing competition from open-source AI models.
Independent financial research firm New Constructs has issued a sharp rebuke of Anthropic's planned Nasdaq listing, valuing the artificial intelligence company at $150 billion — a fraction of the $2 trillion valuation the company is reportedly seeking — and warning that the offering poses a historic risk to financial markets.
In a note published Tuesday, New Constructs called Anthropic's upcoming public offering the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026," arguing that mounting operating losses and intensifying competition from open-source AI models leave the company without a viable path to profitability. "We don't think Anthropic has a viable business," the firm wrote.
To justify a $2 trillion market cap, New Constructs estimates Anthropic would need to generate roughly double the trailing annual profit of Nvidia, currently the world's most valuable technology company. Nvidia's net income over the past four quarters topped $190 billion.
Anthropic, by contrast, recorded revenue of $4.6 billion in 2025 while posting a net loss of $42 billion, according to figures from a leaked copy of the company's prospectus. The company claimed at the end of July that its annualized revenue run rate had risen sevenfold year-over-year to $65 billion. Separately, a September report indicated the company was on pace to generate $100 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026.
New Constructs has not seen Anthropic's actual S-1 filing, which has not been made public. The firm said the selectively disclosed prospectus figures are sufficient to assess what it described as "gargantuan risks."
The report draws an explicit parallel to WeWork, which New Constructs labeled the "most ridiculous IPO of 2019" ahead of that company's planned offering. WeWork, once valued privately at $47 billion, pulled its IPO just six weeks after the New Constructs report amid weak demand and financial scrutiny. It filed for bankruptcy in 2023. "While Anthropic offers more to society than WeWork ever did, at a $2 trillion valuation, its IPO presents far bigger risks and is positioned to be a far bigger rip off of U.S. capital markets," the firm wrote, adding that the offering's primary purpose is to provide liquidity for existing Wall Street backers rather than wealth creation for public investors.
David Trainer, founder and CEO of New Constructs, acknowledged the firm does not have a perfect record on such calls. Its designated "most ridiculous IPO" of 2020 was DoorDash, which the firm compared unfavorably to WeWork. DoorDash's stock surged on its December 2020 debut, giving the company a market cap of over $60 billion — a figure that has since grown to $83 billion. New Constructs was also bearish on Allbirds ahead of its 2021 Nasdaq debut, when the shoe company reached a valuation of $4.1 billion on opening day; Allbirds later sold its assets to American Exchange Group for an estimated $39 million. In a 2021 interview, Trainer said, "I can't let that bother me. I have to stay true to what I think is right."
The New Constructs report also flagged Anthropic's own public acknowledgment that AI could pose "a catastrophic or existential risk to humanity" as an additional reason for investors to exercise caution.
New Constructs further cited the rise of open-source AI models as a structural threat to closed-model providers. "Since the arrival of open-source models, it's been clear that the closed models would struggle to generate profits," the firm wrote.
Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment. The company has yet to make its prospectus public, and a formal listing date has not been announced. How public market investors ultimately weigh the gap between Anthropic's reported losses and its growth trajectory will serve as a closely watched signal for the broader AI investment cycle.
Jay Goldberg is a staff writer at TechEchelon covering technology, markets, and policy. He files the breaking news and deal coverage that move the publication's core desks.
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